Birds eye view of a hurricanePredicting the weather has come a long way in the last 100 years. Meteorologist have more sophisticated tools available such as satellite images and Doppler radar. These tools allow the meteorologist predictions to be fairly accurate for up to a week in advance. Even with all the advances in the tools the coast still continues to sustain an abundance of damage when a hurricane comes.

Hurricane predictions fall into two categories: seasonal probabilities and the tracking of a current hurricane. Each year starting in April, meteorologist will begin talking about the number of named storms that are predicted for the upcoming hurricane season. The approximate wind speeds and intensity of the winds can be calculated using elementary statistics. The statistics come from past seasons and are fairly accurate. The number of named storms is also predicted from the number of past storms and current factors in the climate. However, they are not able to predict the exact date that a hurricane will hit the coast. They are only able to say that there is a chance that a major hurricane will hit the coast during hurricane season.

Once a hurricane is formed, meteorologists are usually able to predict the path for 3-5 days in advance. They use many different models to predict the path of the storm. The best model was the CLIPER or Climate and Persistence model. It was based on past data and current climate data and was used until the 1980’s. Today the NHC90 and Bam models are used to gather data about the storms. The National Hurricane Center also relies on the United States Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction Systems to assist with the prediction of storms.

Predicting the intensity and when a storm will make landfall is necessary to allow people who live in these regions to take the appropriate action needed before the storm reaches land. Even though there have been great strides in predicting hurricanes, there is much more that needs to be done. There is still a problem with accuracy, even though the room for error decreases as the storm moves closer to land.

As you can see, there is still a need to be as prepared as possible before a storm forms. Having a hurricane plan, the necessary items and a hurricane kit available and storm protection for your home is essential. Having everything in place before the storm reduces the stress of rushing around when there is a storm approaching.  If you are in need of protecting your home from flying debris and winds associated with a hurricane, Armor Screen is ready to assist you in deciding the best protection for your home.

2017-10-20T14:25:52+00:00 June 8th, 2017|Blog|Comments Off on The Predictions of Hurricanes is Not an Exact Science